COVID - 19 BY THE NUMBERS

One of my childhood friends complained to me about how the COVID 19 virus has disrupted his social life. He asked me what I thought about the current situation. The following is what I sent him. I hope you find this helpful.

I  think we are UNDER-REACTING! Take a look at Italy. Nearly 2000 deaths already. Their health care system is totally overwhelmed.


Here are some simple numbers that should help give you perspective.
 The Germans are predicting a 70% penetration rate. That means 70% of their population will at some time be infected. I think that number is low since no one has immunity to this disease.

If we assume the same penetration rate for the USA with our population of 320 million people that means 224 million people will be infected. Not every infected person will be critically ill. For most it will be like a cold. However, it's not a cold or the flu and a lot of folks get very ill and require hospitalization. Current estimates are about 15% to 20% of those infected will require hospitalization. That means conservatively around 33 million people will require hospitalization!
The current efforts are focused on slowing the spread of the infection to avoid overwhelming our hospitals, because once that happens the deaths that result will include others that require hospitalization for non-COVID - 19 problems. 
Current estimates of the mortality rates range from 2% to 4% but those numbers are unreliable. Even if its as low as the rate from the common flu of .1% that yields over 200,000 deaths. About triple the number from the flu. If its the lower number of current estimates, 2%, we are talking about 4,000,000 deaths. Check for yourself how many deaths have occurred in our various wars.

So yeah, i think we need to take this very seriously. We are all in this fight to slow the spread of this disease. 

Stay well.